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I love the SSE meeting and sometimes the

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themes turned out to be particularly

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interesting just about the time

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Concilium was named as the theme for

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this meeting I was working on something

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which turns out I didn't know it at the

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time but it turns out to be a pretty

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much an exact match and I want to talk

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to you about that today I run this

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project called the global consciousness

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project and it's been on for about

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twenty years

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it's a network of random number

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generators of random event generators

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spread around the world the red spots

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here show where they have been some of

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them are still running some of them have

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retired and my son put the architecture

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together for a software that still works

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after 20 years he said what you're doing

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looks a little bit like an EEG but not

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for the brain instead for the world so I

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said why don't you call it an electro

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diagram AGG so it was called the egg

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project for a while and the devices are

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still called eggs that may show up in a

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slide or two here anyway a very brief

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introduction to what that does and then

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we'll get to what I think of is the meat

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of my talk today this is what the day

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look like there a trial every second

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where a trial is 200 flips of the

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digital coin in true random number

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generators and this as I think you

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probably all agree doesn't look exactly

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interpret well yeah but the question

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we're going to ask is is there structure

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in data like this and in particular is

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there structure when there's something

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going on in the world which brings

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people to a mass consciousness first I

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need to talk a little bit about how

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we've

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process the data this is now all of

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however many of these devices there are

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compounded into single points for each

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second there's a an average across all

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the devices for each second that's not

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yet what we need what we want is a

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variance measure how much - how much you

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know difference from expectation is

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there in any direction either direction

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that's still not very interpretive oh

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but there are small differences quite

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often between what's expected and what

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we actually have and we so I've

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amplified it here a little bit but you

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still can't see much structure if there

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is any so what we have done over the

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years is for most of the time created

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what was what's called a cumulative

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deviation graph just to show the history

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of deviations from expectation happened

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if the deviation is positive this trace

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goes up it was negative it goes down

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I'll show you a couple more pictures

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like that in some examples the protocol

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for the experiment has always been to

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identify an event it might be a positive

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event big celebration or might be a

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tragedy of some kind we specify the

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beginning of that event and the end of

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it and that and the corresponding data

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is what we look at and ask whether

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there's any structure so this is an

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example - a few years ago there were

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there was on September 21st which is has

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been for many years a day when people

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get together for peace marches and plant

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and but this one combined was combined

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also with attempts to make people think

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more clearly about climate change and

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there were 500,000 people in New York

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and probably similar to large numbers of

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people in most of the big cities so

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millions of people were paying attention

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to that

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[Music]

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bottom red trace is what an expected

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sequence of data from this network

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should look like big difference a couple

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more examples this one is one that

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people who pay attention to the global

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consciousness project often thing as the

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most impressive of them all and in some

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ways it is

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we made a prediction and set our data

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there are all that stuff for a four-hour

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Plus period it turns out that there was

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a big change in the day you can see it

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in the figure that went on for about

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and/or persisted for three days more or

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less we'll come back to that particular

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figure later we have tragedies occurring

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all the time and one of the hardest to

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understand is this mass murder tendency

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that we seem to have adopted it's like a

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virus that spread this is New Zealand

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only two months three months ago but we

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also as I said look at both negative and

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positive events this one represents the

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coup Mela which is a huge celebration of

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Hindu religion in India every few years

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it doesn't happen every year millions

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literally 10 20 30 million people

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according to what I read arrived in

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northern India and try to bathe away

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their sins in the Ganges this is a

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composite across four replications they

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all look rather like each other and the

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buildup of evidence that something is

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going on in other words that their

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structure and data it shouldn't have any

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it's pretty strong so going on to a kind

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of bottom line this is what the data

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look like when you just plot all the

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data all the Z scores for each of 500

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events as a scatterplot again

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it's not easy to make much sense of it

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but you probably can see there's a

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difference between two lines in the

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middle of that graph but we use this

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cumulative deviation tactic to make it a

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little more apparent what's actually

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going on again if the z-score is

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positive we plot it step up if it's

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negative a step down you can see that

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there are both negative and positive but

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something like 70% of the events go in

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the direction of our prediction and that

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builds up to the extraordinary piece of

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evidence statistically we have a seven

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sigma departure from expectation what

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people in the physical sciences think is

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good enough to say maybe so maybe there

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is some there there so given a kind of

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solid foundation that something is going

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on we can do a lot of different kinds of

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analysis we've done a lot of digging in

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the data see what kind of structure

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there might be beyond what we have

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predicted there would be and there are

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several kinds of things that happen

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there's a distance relationship there

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the kind of event matters the size of

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the event matters quite a few things

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like that but I want to talk about

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models because we have a lot of data

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because it's a solid foundation we can

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begin to test models against the data so

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there's the two that stand out one that

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I don't prefer is called goal

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orientation by some people or an

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experimenter effect and I'm my most of

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what I'm going to talk about from now is

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why I don't prefer that but instead

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think probably we're dealing with

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something that might be characterized

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just verbally in a hand-waving sense as

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a kind of information field or some kind

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of consciousness field something that is

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constructed out of all of our individual

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consciousness

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now coming together to become to produce

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they filled with sufficient information

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in it of the kind that can be absorbed

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into random systems that's as I said

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hand-waving

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we don't know how that would work

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exactly but what we can do is find out

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if the data are consistent with the

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things that have that a model like that

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would predict another version of this

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idea of a consciousness field in at

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least I think is something John Muir

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said a long time ago for those of you

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not recognize the name he's one of the

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greatest naturalist we've had he says

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when you try to pick out anything by

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itself we find it hitched to everything

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else in the universe so I'm going to

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focus on this model the role orientation

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model which is the work of Peter pencil

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a friend and colleague who's been doing

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a lot of the deeper analysis and the

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global consciousness data he tried for

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many years to show that a field model

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works very well and he found lots of

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reasons to say that was the case but at

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some point at some level he needed to be

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able to get through the protective

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logical stages that prevent biases from

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affecting our you know things like

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temperature change or like make

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electromagnetic fields how do you get a

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mentally induced bias into a system

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that's protected so completely you

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couldn't figure out how to do that so I

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switched to an allegiance to this

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different model an experimenter effect

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which means you select the right time to

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start your experiment it selects the

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right time to end it and thereby achieve

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the the production of a deviant sequence

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just of the sort you need he says that

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there's an implication if you do that

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I'll show you pictures that indicate

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better what the what we're talking about

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in a moment he's one of the implications

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it says

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is that while during the event we'll

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have positive trend in the data before

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the event will have a negative trend I

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think that actually is essentially the

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gamblers fallacy and I'm a little

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surprised and I talked to him about it

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how can you say that because these data

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these sequential trials are independent

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there is no reason whatever to expect

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that taking a positive segment out

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should cause the adjacent segment be

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negative but this is what the figures

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look like that you produce if you

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combine all events across the whole

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database of 500 or the short events only

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or longer events only these figures

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Peter says are consistent with the idea

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of this goal orientation but not with a

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field like model so that's one

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interpretation but as I mentioned I was

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thinking about this for quite a long

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time and I troubled me that there were

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so many inconsistencies for example not

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all of these in fact not even half of

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the short events that shows so nicely

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this negative positive negative trend

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that Peters talking about they're not

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all selected in this sense of somebody

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picking out the starting point because

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the starting point is used that was used

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before for the event like that eight

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years ago or five years ago so this was

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rattling around in my unconscious or

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subconscious for a long time and I

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finally had this sort of suddenly

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realization that this looked very much

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like something I had studied in graduate

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school it looked like brain evoked

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potentials only a little different

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because the kind of presentation using

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the the cumulative deviation trace it

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shows the structural right but it

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doesn't show it in the same way that

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brain evoked potentials do they

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typically show up whether it's a light

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flash causing

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tivity in your brain or sharp sound or

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maybe a decision those in brain science

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you can repeat the stimulus many times

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get lots of samples of this very noisy

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stuff so but when you put all the

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samples together you can get a

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reasonably readable curve so it I

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decided let's try that in the global

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consciousness data which is noisy in the

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same way but if we use smoothing we can

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gradually get to something that looks a

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little bit familiar relative to that

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last slide here is the all events graph

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from Peter Ben cells work and this is

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the same data set I converted their

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cumulative deviation back to raw data

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and did the smoothing and that's the

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picture you get which I think looks a

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little bit familiar a couple more

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examples this is the shorty bench the

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strongest case front for this goal

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orientation model and if you take that

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apart and plot the smooth raw data again

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you get this trace that looks a lot like

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an and invoke potential to me there's

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just a randomly chosen arbitrarily

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chosen example I also took all the

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events that I thought really ought to be

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good cases and put them together in the

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same way that Peter had the all of the

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short events these are this is all the

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six-hour events and one thing you might

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immediately notice is there isn't any

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negative trends before or after the

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moment when the the segment of data

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which is corresponds to the events that

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actually showed some rather strong

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effect the raw data from this when

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trance transformed by the smoothing

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algorithms again looks rather like some

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sort of global

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brain evoked response one more example

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9/11 produced such a strong and clear

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trace

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that's a nine day period with 9/11 right

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in the middle and I decided to pull the

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raw data for that and do this movie and

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we see once again a close resemblance

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for the kind of things that we get from

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brain science here's a carefully

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selected version that happens to have

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almost exactly the same shape but this

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is interesting this is a contingent

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negative variation which is produced in

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US and used to examine the possibility

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that something is going on that amounts

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for brain response before the event that

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it anomaly refers to this is

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decision-making the brain starts

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producing some signals that sort of

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become the decision-making signal before

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the person is conscious of their just

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decision so I think that there is huge

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power in Concilium and John Herschel

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this is an eighteen thirty said

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something that was very similar to

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something I've heard two or three times

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at this meeting he said the surest and

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best characteristic of a well founded an

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extensive induction is when

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verifications of his spring up as it

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were spontaneously into notice from

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quarters where they might least be

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expected evidence of this kind is

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irresistible and compels assent with a

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weight that's scarcely any other

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produces so I think that's Concilium

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I should mention that if you're

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interested in more of the details there

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00:17:34,250 --> 00:17:32,070
are two books available one in German my

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co-author your Kindle and I produced

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this book last year dead guys means the

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world spirit and subtitle says wait how

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we are all interconnected with each

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other the connected is was produced only

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in March and that is the subtitle of

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that is the emergence of global

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consciousness thanks Roger

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somewhat a tangent of part of what you

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were showing you talked about the mass

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shootings and constantly every afraid do

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you see that I mean we there's news

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reports that we've become immune to all

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these mass shootings in the u.s. do you

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see a reduction in this effect with mass

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shootings over over the years I have not

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seen that yet but I did see that in

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terrorist attacks during the period of

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the Iraq war

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at first they when some some terrorist

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attack killed a couple hundred people

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the GCP would respond gradually it

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became kind of a nerd I think and

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responded maybe a little bit but no

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longer so strongly it's an interesting

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idea the only problem I see that you you

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had events and they're not all the same

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events you know I was thinking what

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could we use because you wanted

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something same event that repeats all

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the time our president likes to tweet

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00:19:14,810 --> 00:19:09,510
all the time why don't you use him as

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the sync signals for you're averaging if

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the Jeezy could tweet they would say no

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I came up here really with three

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comments Roger beat me to one of them I

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wanted to put out a plug for connected

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that connected was published by our IC

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RL press and it's gotten great reviews

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and I was the editor for it and I think

387
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it's a fantastic book so check it out

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and it's got more information about the

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00:19:59,149 --> 00:19:53,720
Rogers program than you can imagine

390
00:20:02,000 --> 00:19:59,159
second point was just an addendum that I

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think that the folks in sse might

392
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appreciate was that one of the events

393
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that roger recorded that had a very

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strong effect was the time of bob jones

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passing which was I think what was it

396
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about three or four standard deviation

397
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was big yes this mean this is one of

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those kinds of things where there's no

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selection done we know when Bob passed

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so it's possible to take the data that

401
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in the same way that we've done for

402
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:34,679
other people like Nelson Mandela same

403
00:20:42,110 --> 00:20:38,250
kind of curve it's kind of surprising

404
00:20:42,549 --> 00:20:42,120
it's a global event in some way I think

405
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so

406
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but my third observation is just to

407
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point out something that you are of

408
00:20:53,930 --> 00:20:50,429
course familiar with with regard to the

409
00:20:56,659 --> 00:20:53,940
vote potential pattern as you know we

410
00:20:59,060 --> 00:20:56,669
saw a very similar pattern that we

411
00:21:01,940 --> 00:20:59,070
called series position effects in the

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pair data across all the experiments

413
00:21:08,539 --> 00:21:05,850
that we did that produced results same

414
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sort of initial strong effect that then

415
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dropped off and then gradually tapered

416
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or you know recovered close to baseline

417
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although a little bit above but that

418
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that's just one other example of that

419
00:21:25,100 --> 00:21:21,960
thank you

420
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:25,110
I I really believe that I mean I didn't

421
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know what Concilium meant when I saw the

422
00:21:31,210 --> 00:21:29,490
word so of course I had to look it up I

423
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bet most of us did

424
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but I I am now persuaded that we should

425
00:21:41,350 --> 00:21:38,620
pay attention when a word signals

426
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connection between things that otherwise

427
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:44,540
would remain unconnected Roger I think

428
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:46,490
what you're presenting is compelling

429
00:21:52,120 --> 00:21:47,930
that this really is a global

430
00:21:55,270 --> 00:21:52,130
consciousness effect but there but there

431
00:21:57,670 --> 00:21:55,280
is not a conflict between goal oriented

432
00:22:02,410 --> 00:21:57,680
approach and a global consciousness

433
00:22:05,980 --> 00:22:02,420
approach because you are programming the

434
00:22:08,650 --> 00:22:05,990
whole network with your mind to react to

435
00:22:10,570 --> 00:22:08,660
the global consciousness and I discussed

436
00:22:13,120 --> 00:22:10,580
this in detail last year in my

437
00:22:15,550 --> 00:22:13,130
presentation on psychotics and I believe

438
00:22:17,770 --> 00:22:15,560
you've created a large cybot ik system

439
00:22:21,370 --> 00:22:17,780
that actually is a global consciousness

440
00:22:23,700 --> 00:22:21,380
effect but there are conflicts if you

441
00:22:27,970 --> 00:22:23,710
look at it as being purely mechanistic

442
00:22:31,300 --> 00:22:27,980
so I leave it at that right yes I thank

443
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:31,310
you I agree and I'm not alone by any

444
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:33,770
means thinking nor that nor the two of

445
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:36,650
us thinking that there is a kind of I

446
00:22:41,050 --> 00:22:39,290
think Stefan Schwartz may have come up

447
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:41,060
with this particular term but I like it

448
00:22:46,780 --> 00:22:44,330
an intention contract that we make as

449
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:46,790
experimenters between what we're

450
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:49,730
interested in and the device the system

451
00:22:58,600 --> 00:22:52,250
the tools that we will use to try to

452
00:23:02,980 --> 00:22:58,610
learn something about that this is

453
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:02,990
actually not a a technical comment I was

454
00:23:07,390 --> 00:23:05,450
somewhat startled since of course I knew

455
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:07,400
about connected and I knew perfectly

456
00:23:13,450 --> 00:23:10,090
well it had been produced by IC RL press

457
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:13,460
I'm wondering why the URL up there is

458
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:16,250
Book Depository calm rather than IC RL

459
00:23:22,660 --> 00:23:19,490
org I only had 20 minutes so I thought I

460
00:23:25,690 --> 00:23:22,670
can't say Amazon and Barnes & Noble also

461
00:23:27,250 --> 00:23:25,700
but yes it's much for people in this

462
00:23:30,430 --> 00:23:27,260
country it's easily available at

463
00:23:33,550 --> 00:23:30,440
amazon.com or Barnes and noble.com

464
00:23:35,410 --> 00:23:33,560
but for people in Europe who want to

465
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:35,420
order this book it turns out Amazon does

466
00:23:43,220 --> 00:23:38,690
not ship will not ship so you this

467
00:23:45,710 --> 00:23:43,230
company ships for a price that includes

468
00:23:51,340 --> 00:23:45,720
being of course a little more than that